Every call, kept
Track record
Each piece ends with three things to watch. Each one is a call: a prediction that can turn out right or wrong. They are all listed here, and marked when they resolve.
12Calls made
0Right
0Wrong
0Mixed
12Still open
| Made | The call | From | Status | Resolved | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The US will not have imposed a formal ban on diesel exports to Europe by 30 November 2026. Resolves by 30 November 2026 | Britain signed up to the G7 diesel release. What can it put in? | Open | — | ||
| Average UK diesel will still be above 190p a litre on 31 October 2026. Resolves by 31 October 2026 | Britain signed up to the G7 diesel release. What can it put in? | Open | — | ||
| The Commission's next published Task Force notice on diesel will not list the UK among participants. Resolves by 31 December 2026 | Britain signed up to the G7 diesel release. What can it put in? | Open | — | ||
| The summit communiqué will set a date for at least one of the May 2025 items but will not commit the UK to seeking customs union or single market membership. Resolves by 30 November 2026 | Is Burnham right to keep the door open to rejoining the EU? | Open | — | ||
| No 10 will not publish that evidence before the summit. Resolves by 30 November 2026 | Is Burnham right to keep the door open to rejoining the EU? | Open | — | ||
| The OBR will keep its 15% trade and 4% productivity assumptions unchanged in its next forecast. Resolves by 31 March 2027 | Is Burnham right to keep the door open to rejoining the EU? | Open | — | ||
| The 28 October Budget will move more policy costs off electricity bills. Resolves by 28 October 2026 | Burnham recommits to net zero. Is there a plan behind the pledge? | Open | — | ||
| The Climate Change Committee's next progress report will say current policies are not enough to meet the UK's next carbon budget. Resolves by 31 July 2027 | Burnham recommits to net zero. Is there a plan behind the pledge? | Open | — | ||
| The government will approve Jackdaw without publishing how it fits the 2050 target. Resolves by 31 December 2026 | Burnham recommits to net zero. Is there a plan behind the pledge? | Open | — | ||
| The 28 October Budget will include at least one tax rise. Resolves by 28 October 2026 | Should the government rule out tax rises before the Budget? | Open | — | ||
| The Treasury will deny the exit tax rumour before the Budget. Resolves by 28 October 2026 | Should the government rule out tax rises before the Budget? | Open | — | ||
| The Conservative small-business tax review will report in December without saying how its proposals would be paid for. Resolves by 31 December 2026 | Should the government rule out tax rises before the Budget? | Open | — |
How calls are judged
A call is marked right when the event happens as predicted by the date given, wrong when it clearly doesn't, and mixed when part of it comes true. A call is marked void only when the event it depends on is cancelled, and the reason is given. The judgment is made against a public source, which is linked in the note, and a call is never reworded after it is made. If a judgment is disputed and turns out to be wrong, the change is logged on the corrections page.