Tuesday 27 October 2026Immigration Economy

Is Mahmood right to make lower-skilled migrant workers wait 15 years to settle?

In 30 seconds

The row

Mahmood has proposed a 15-year wait to settle for workers in below-degree jobs. Two cabinet ministers have voiced doubts, and Burnham has not committed to the plan in full.

The numbers

199,628 people were granted settlement in the year to June 2026. The Home Office projects 359,000 to 620,000 in 2028 alone, and 1.3m to 2.2m from 2026 to 2030.

My verdictPartly right

The problem is real. I'd set any long route by household income, passport pre-consultation arrivals through at five years, and let long-route workers leave their sponsor after five.

Why

What happened

Shabana Mahmood's November 2025 consultation proposed raising the standard wait for settlement from five years to ten. For workers sponsored in roles below RQF level 6, roughly degree level, such as care workers, it proposed 15 years. On 20 October LBC reported that the Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, was considering exempting care workers and that about 100 Labour MPs oppose the plan. The Home Office opposes an exemption, saying care workers would leave the sector.

Pressed seven times on Sky News on 21 October, Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh declined to back the longer wait. The next day she said she fully supports the Home Secretary and the government's position. Housing Secretary Angela Rayner warned in September against shifting the goalposts for people who arrived early this decade, and later denied a split.

On 23 October Burnham said decisions would come soon but did not commit to the plan in full. On 21 October the Home Office minister Jo White told MPs she could not give a date for a response. No final decisions on transitional arrangements had been made.

What's really going on

Settlement, or indefinite leave to remain, is the point at which a migrant stops paying visa fees and can claim benefits. The deadline is February 2027, when people who arrived in 2022 start to qualify under the five-year rule. The rules that count are those in force when you apply, so they can change for people already here.

Settlement grants reached 199,628 in the year to June 2026, up 24% and the most since 2011. The Home Office projects 359,000 to 620,000 settlements in 2028 alone, and 1.3m to 2.2m from 2026 to 2030. That is more than the 620,000 to 820,000 non-EU nationals estimated to hold settlement at the end of 2024.

The Home Office puts the lifetime net cost of the 117,000 care workers and 79,000 adult dependants expected to settle from 2026 to 2030 at £9.5bn. That is what the group costs over a lifetime once settled; the note does not estimate what a longer wait would save. The Committee adds that it leaves out the value of the care they provide.

Net migration has fallen to 171,000 in the year to December 2025, from 331,000. At least 325,000 visas have gone to medium-skilled workers since 2021, but the Home Office did not tell the Committee how many of them would face the 15-year route.

The strongest case on each side

The case for Mahmood's 15-year route

Settlement ends visa fees and opens benefits. Up to 620,000 settlements in 2028 alone, three times the latest year's total, is a real fiscal cost.
Settlement is effectively automatic on time served, and Mahmood argues it differs little day to day from citizenship, so it should be earned.
No one loses a status they hold. The rules in force when you apply have always governed, and transitional protection is still being weighed.

The case against the 15-year route

Fifteen years of employer-tied sponsorship is fifteen years of leverage, and the Committee found the plan likely to worsen exploitation in care.
Skill level is a poor stand-in for income. A well-paid hotel general manager lands on 15 years, which the Committee called arbitrary.
People who followed the rules face a tripled wait. Eighty Labour MPs wrote that this fails the fairness test, and it risks harming integration.

My verdict: partly right

Mahmood has identified a real problem and picked the wrong tool. A settlement peak of up to 620,000 in 2028, three times the latest year's 199,628 grants, is a fiscal event the five-year route was never built for. But the 15-year route rests on a skill classification the Committee called arbitrary, and it reaches people who arrived on a five-year understanding.

Her critics have an easier job than they admit. Fahnbulleh declined to back the plan one day and said she fully supports Mahmood the next, and neither she nor Rayner has published a costed alternative.

The government is slow too. About three months before the first 2022 arrivals qualify, a minister cannot say when it will decide. So the plan is partly right, and only in its reading of the problem.

What I'd do instead

I would take the Home Affairs Committee's March recommendations off the shelf and make three decisions the government has been circling since the consultation closed.

Set any long route by household income, with the MAC picking the line

Replace the skill-level test with an earnings test judged across the household, using thresholds set by the Migration Advisory Committee, the government's independent adviser on migration.

How it would work: The Home Office commissions the MAC to set an earnings threshold. Households below it for three years qualify at ten years; households above it qualify at five.
What it costs: Unknown, because the Home Office has not published how many of the 325,000-plus medium-skilled visa holders would change route. The cost is lost visa fees and earlier benefit access.
Who it affects: Care workers near the £12,570 floor still face ten years. Well-paid below-degree workers and non-earning partners of high earners move to five. Skilled Worker dependants' median pay was £30,200, against £56,600 for main applicants.
The risk: Alan Manning warned that the £50,270 discount gives employers a reason to hold migrant pay below it. Any threshold carries that risk, and the MAC needs time February 2027 does not allow.

Passport everyone who arrived before the consultation through at five years

Apply the longer waits only to people who arrived after the November 2025 consultation.

How it would work: The new rules carry a transitional clause. Anyone who entered before the November 2025 consultation applies under the five-year route. Mahmood has told MPs that passporting cohorts through at five years is an option.
What it costs: This is the expensive option. Most of the 1.3m to 2.2m people projected to settle from 2026 to 2030 are already here. The £9.5bn cohort settles on the old timetable and fee income ends sooner.
Who it affects: Everyone who arrived before November 2025 keeps the deal they came on, including the 157,490 care workers granted entry visas from 2021 to September 2025. Later arrivals face the longer routes.
The risk: The 2028 peak of 359,000 to 620,000 settlements arrives in full, up to three times the latest year's 199,628. The Home Office argues care workers would then leave the sector.

Let long-route workers leave their sponsor after five years

After five sponsored years, a worker on a long route could switch to an unsponsored visa policed by the Fair Work Agency.

How it would work: After five years' sponsored work, a long-route worker could hold an unsponsored visa in any job above the earnings floor, still without recourse to public funds. The Fair Work Agency would police pay.
What it costs: The Home Office gains an enforcement job it does not do now. The CBI's Matthew Percival told the Committee new machinery would be needed, and no figure has been published.
Who it affects: Care providers lose a guaranteed workforce after five years, which Care England's Martin Green says would need funding. Workers gain protection the 40,000-plus displaced by licence revocations by June 2025 lacked.
The risk: Without a sponsor the Home Office loses sight of pay and employment, which Sumption called the trade-off. An agency that opened in April 2026 would be asked to replace it.

The trade-off

These settle most of the current cohort sooner than Mahmood's plan, so the Treasury keeps less of the short-term saving from visa fees and delayed benefits. The losers are care providers, who keep sponsored staff for five years rather than fifteen.

How we'd know it worked

If the income test works, the Home Office's impact assessment should show well-paid below-degree workers off the long route, with the 2028 peak still inside its 359,000 to 620,000 range. If the flexible visa works, the count of care workers displaced by licence revocations should stop rising.

What to watch

The final earned settlement policy, which Mahmood told MPs would come later this year.
A concession for care workers, which Burnham is reported to be considering.
Transitional protection for the 2022 arrivals who would qualify in February 2027.

Each of these is logged as an open call on my track record.