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Is the Energy Secretary right to refuse Rosebank after approving Jackdaw?

In 30 seconds

What happened

The Energy Secretary is reported to be minded to refuse Rosebank, on the day the regulator granted consent for the Jackdaw gasfield with her agreement.

Why it matters

Rosebank is mostly export oil with end-use emissions around seven times Jackdaw's total, so the same assessment can give a different answer.

My verdictMostly right

The distinction holds up on the government's own reasoning, but ministers should write it into guidance and publish the Rosebank decision on a stated date.

Why

What happened

The Energy Secretary, Miatta Fahnbulleh, is reported to be minded to reject consent for the Rosebank oilfield, according to the Guardian. No decision has been announced, and she has said it will take longer than Jackdaw's. GOV.UK still lists Rosebank as under review, and the public consultation on the revised application closed on 17 August 2026.

On 14 October she agreed to the grant of consent for the Jackdaw gasfield, and the North Sea Transition Authority, the licensing regulator, granted it on 21 October. Jackdaw's 2022 approval had been quashed in January 2025 by the Court of Session for leaving out the emissions from burning the gas. The re-taken decision puts the field's total emissions at about 36.6mn tonnes of CO2 equivalent and says it lifts UK gas output by about 6% at peak.

The energy minister, Michael Shanks, made the Commons statement on 21 October. At PMQs the same day, the Prime Minister said he had asked the Chancellor and Energy Secretary to look at whether standing charges can be removed from gas bills.

What's really going on

For both fields, the regulator can consent only if the Secretary of State agrees after an environmental assessment. Under June 2025 guidance, it must include downstream scope 3 emissions, the carbon released when the fuel is burnt.

The guidance sets no pass or fail test. Ministers weigh the overall balance of advantage. For Jackdaw, the Secretary of State gave 'moderate adverse' weight to climate effects and 'significant positive' weight to security of supply.

Jackdaw's production emissions run to 808,935 tonnes over the field's life; those falling in 2028 to 2032 take 0.0194% of the fifth carbon budget. At peak it adds up to 4 million cubic metres a day, under 1% of the gas available on a rare cold winter day.

The developer estimates 27 new jobs and 273 safeguarded on a £2.1bn project. The decision says it will not materially affect energy prices.

Rosebank's developer puts its lifetime emissions at 254mn tonnes, 249mn of them from burning its output, about seven times Jackdaw's total. Uplift, a campaign group, says about 90% of its reserves are oil; the developer says the crude would be sold globally.

Fahnbulleh told the Guardian that Jackdaw caters for the domestic market and Rosebank is 'mainly for export'. Labour MPs including Afzal Khan argue Rosebank cannot be justified on top of Jackdaw.

The strongest case on each side

For refusing Rosebank while consenting Jackdaw

  1. Rosebank is mostly export oil. The security-of-supply weight that carried Jackdaw rests on gas entering the UK grid, and that argument does not transfer.
  2. Its end-use emissions of 249mn tonnes are roughly seven times Jackdaw's total. Approving both on the same weighing would make the climate test meaningless.
  3. The government's own Jackdaw document says the field will not materially affect prices, so there is no bills case to set against Rosebank's emissions.

For consenting Rosebank on the same terms as Jackdaw

  1. Jackdaw was decided on the regulations as they stand. A developer that fixed the defect the court identified deserves the same treatment on Rosebank.
  2. Refusal does not cut UK oil demand. The barrels are imported instead, and the Jackdaw decision accepted that domestic production can beat imports on emissions.
  3. North-east Scotland's supply chain needs a pipeline of projects. Refusing a field licensed years ago, after a long review, signals the basin is closing.

My verdict: mostly right

The minister's reported position is mostly right. Jackdaw's consent rests on gas entering the national grid; Rosebank is about 90% oil for export, with end-use emissions around seven times as large. Industry's fairness complaint is weaker than it sounds, because Rosebank was always a different case on the department's own criteria.

But the government has made this harder than it needed to be. It publishes no level at which emissions tip a decision, so a refusal will look like politics even where the reasoning is sound. It gave 'moderate adverse' weight to the harm to Britain's climate standing on Jackdaw and consented anyway, and this position arrived through a briefing rather than a decision document.

What I'd do instead

I'd keep the distinction the minister is drawing, write it down, and put a date on the Rosebank decision.

Write the domestic-supply test into the scope 3 guidance

Amend DESNZ's June 2025 guidance so every offshore application states the share of output expected to reach the UK market, and ministers weigh that share explicitly.

The problem
The Jackdaw decision leans on gas landing at St Fergus and being burnt in the UK. That test exists only in one decision's reasoning and the minister's remarks, so the next applicant cannot plan around it.
How it would work
DESNZ revises the June 2025 guidance after a short consultation. Applicants model the UK-market share of their oil and gas under their sales arrangements. OPRED assesses it and the Secretary of State weighs it alongside emissions and supply security.
What it costs
Little in cash; a guidance change is absorbed within the department. The cost falls on developers who must model and defend export assumptions, and on future revenue if fewer fields proceed.
Who it affects
Adura, as operator of both Jackdaw and Rosebank, first. Then any field where oil dominates the reserves, since Rosebank's oil is, on the campaigners' figures, mainly for export.
Tried before?
Informally, in Jackdaw. The 2022 Climate Compatibility Checkpoint asks whether the UK stays a net importer, but only before licensing rounds, and none are planned. The June 2025 guidance asks for no UK-market share.
The risk
Oil trades internationally, so a stated UK share is hard to enforce once a field is producing. A test developers consider unfair invites judicial review, the route that undid Jackdaw's 2022 consent.

Set a date for the Rosebank decision and publish it in Jackdaw's form

The Secretary of State should name the date for the Rosebank decision and publish a Regulation 14 document in the same form as Jackdaw's.

The problem
Rosebank was consented in 2023, the Court of Session quashed that in January 2025, and it has been under review since September 2025. Consultation closed on 17 August 2026. Ministers say only that a decision comes 'in due course'.
How it would work
OPRED, acting for the Secretary of State, already holds the environmental statement, further information from 2025 and 2026 and the public representations, and ministers say the evidence stage is over. A written ministerial statement names the decision date.
Who it affects
Adura and its investors, who currently have a leak rather than a decision. Shetland and north-east communities who read the consultation notices in July. Campaigners, who get a document they can test in court.
What it costs
Nothing in money. The cost is flexibility, because a published date removes the option of waiting for a quieter news week or a better oil market.
Tried before?
Jackdaw supplies the form: a Regulation 14 decision document setting out the weighing, published on consent. I found no announced date for the Rosebank decision, and no comparable advance timetable on the GOV.UK project page.
The risk
A rushed document repeats Jackdaw's 2022 mistake, where a gap in the assessment gave the courts grounds to quash it. The date must leave time for the scope 3 work to be done properly.

The trade-off

Neither proposal costs much public money. Ministers lose some of the discretion case-by-case weighing gives them, and Adura's export-heavy field faces a test written down against it.

How we'd know it worked

If the Rosebank decision document states the field's expected UK-market share and arrives on a date announced in advance, the working will have been shown. If it arrives with neither, the Jackdaw method will have produced a different answer without saying why.

What to watch

  1. The Rosebank Regulation 16 decision notice on GOV.UK.
  2. First gas from Jackdaw, which Splash247 reports could flow as early as the end of October 2026.
  3. The Chancellor and Energy Secretary's report back on removing standing charges from gas bills.

Each of these is logged as an open call on my track record.

Sources

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