Day 6 — Two governments back a property tax

The real UK · What the real government did

Housing week begins, and the argument has properly started. Burnham's £39bn, ten-year council housebuilding programme took its first artillery today: the Centre for Policy Studies calculates it delivers just 14,000–15,500 homes a year — about 5% of England's housing need — while stacking onto a £79bn annual housing subsidy, with social rents that don't even cover maintenance. Meanwhile, something more interesting: a Proportional Property Tax petition Burnham has backed — a 0.48% annual levy replacing council tax and stamp duty — passed 100,000 signatures and heads to a Commons debate after recess. That's ~£1,440 a year on a £300k home, replacing £60bn of existing taxes. And the EU has confirmed a year-end summit, with Brussels still treating Burnham as "the unknown quantity".

Where I agree

The property tax — enthusiastically. Council tax is priced on 1991 valuations, which is governance by séance, and stamp duty is a tax on moving house, i.e. a tax on labour mobility and downsizing. A proportional levy fixes both. This is the bravest idea Burnham has touched, and he deserves cover for it.

Where I differ

The CPS has a point buried in its polemic: 15,000 subsidised homes a year is a rounding error against the shortage, and if council housing is your only lever, you've chosen the slowest one. The answer isn't to abandon the programme — it's to stop pretending it's the main event. Consent volumes are the main event. My dashboard says 4,900 a week; his programme adds ~290 a week. Both governments should be embarrassed by different numbers.

The parallel UK · What my government did today

Endorsed the proportional property tax in principle — and did the part politicians skip: published full transition modelling in the Glass Box, winners and losers by region, with a 10-year phase-in and deferral rights for the asset-rich-cash-poor (Missions 1 & 4; if you're going to touch 28 million homes' tax bills, show the spreadsheet first). The Rail Hubs Bill passed second reading, 340–212. Roughly 400 zombie grid applications withdrew voluntarily rather than face the 90-day test — the queue shrinks before the deadline even bites (Mission 2). And New Towns site visits began; the Commissioner reports one candidate town greeted her with a brass band and another with a judicial review pre-action letter. Britain remains Britain in all universes.

Mood in the parallel Cabinet

pleased that both PMs now agree on property tax reform — and privately betting on which of us publishes the losers table first. I already did. His move.

Next dispatch: tomorrow, 6pm.