Ten predictions. One Budget.

The 28 October Budget will include at least one tax rise.

The Budget raised income tax on savings and property income by a further 2 percentage points from April 2027, according to the Budget report. It also raised the bank surcharge from 3% to 6% for 15 months. Marked 28 October.

The Treasury will deny the exit tax rumour before the Budget.

The Treasury did not deny it before the Budget. Asked about exit taxes in a written question, it said only "The Chancellor makes decision on tax policy at fiscal events", and on 16 October the shadow chancellor said Healey still refused to rule one out. Marked 28 October.

The 28 October Budget will move more policy costs off electricity bills.

The Budget moved no further policy costs off household electricity bills. It said no new policy costs will go on bills until a cost control framework is in place at the 2027 spending review, and scrapped a planned levy on gas bills, according to the Budget report. Its one electricity levy cut, for over 10,000 manufacturers from April 2027, was announced in April and only funded at the Budget. Marked 28 October.

The Budget will raise the Warm Home Discount by at least £100 for winter 2026 to 2027, funded from taxation rather than bills.

The Budget did not change the Warm Home Discount, which the energy department's Budget guide still gives as £150. Instead it pays a separate £100 Household Energy Payment from January 2027 to up to 20 million homes in council tax bands A to D in England, partly funded by a higher bank surcharge, according to the Budget report. Marked 28 October.

The Budget will raise the bank surcharge above its current 3%.

The Budget raised the surcharge from 3% to 6% for 15 months, from 1 January 2027 to 31 March 2028, according to HMRC's tax note. Marked 28 October.

The OBR-certified yield for the bank measure in 2027-28 will come in below £2bn.

The OBR-certified yield of the 6% surcharge is £950m in 2027-28, under half of £2bn, according to HMRC's tax note. Marked 28 October.

The Budget will leave the Business Asset Disposal Relief rate at 18% and the lifetime limit at £1m.

The Budget kept the 18% rate but cut the lifetime limit from £1m to £500,000 for disposals from 6 April 2027, according to the Budget report. Marked 28 October.

The Budget will raise the bank surcharge above 3%.

The Budget raised the surcharge from 3% to 6% for 15 months, from 1 January 2027 to 31 March 2028, according to HMRC's tax note. Marked 28 October.

The Budget will announce a reduction to Boiler Upgrade Scheme funding over 2026 to 2030 but will leave the £7,500 standard grant unchanged for applications made before April 2027.

The Budget report holds the scheme at £400m in 2027-28, rising broadly with inflation, against the £600m to £709m a year set in the Warm Homes Plan. It left the grant alone, and GOV.UK still lists £7,500. Marked 28 October.

The Budget will announce that the gas standing charge is to be removed, with the change starting no earlier than 1 April 2027.

The Budget asked Ofgem to abolish gas standing charges on household bills, "aiming for delivery by the end of 2027 or as soon as possible after then", according to the Budget report. It set no start date, so this stays open until Ofgem's January price cap, due by 25 November, shows whether the charge goes before April 2027.